Community based climate risks management in Chad

Project details

Background and Global Importance

1. Climate change is now considered one of the major impediments to sustainable development, with negative consequences for production systems, human and animal health, food security, the economy, natural resources, and infrastructure (IPCC, 2014). Climate change is manifesting itself in sub-Saharan Africa through extreme weather and climate events, spread of desertification and loss of biodiversity. Africa, where more than 95% of agricultural production depends on seasonal rains is likely to be hit hard (IPCC, 2007). Particularly in the Sudano-sahelian zone whose populations are mostly rural and dependent on agropastoralism which in turn are vulnerable to the variation and unreliability of rainfall. These problems are also exacerbated by environmental degradation and destruction, poverty and lack of financial and technical capacity of the general public, which increases their vulnerability. In West Africa, knowledge about climate change is still vague and contradictory.
2. Chad is a sub-Saharan landlocked country with more than half (63%) of its territory being arid (MEE, 2001). This country is increasingly threatened by the adverse effects of climate variability and change, especially in sensitive sectors such as agriculture, livestock and water resources. Over the past 40 years, drought stands out as the most frequent hazard affecting large numbers of people in rural areas and their different income-generating activities. Chief among the impacts of climate change in this country, is the gradual disappearance of Lake Chad as a result of persistent droughts and human activity. The surface area of ​​this Lake has diminished from 25,000 km² to less than 3,000 km² today (LCBC, 2008).
3. Climate change is observed in Chad through the decrease and irregularity of rainfall during the rainy season, seasonal variability, as well as the shortening of the rainy season, with more or less long dry spells. These rainfall deficits exceeded 40% during the severe droughts of the 1970s and 1980s (Andigué et al, 2006). There is a great variability of precipitation in Chad with a downward trend in the order of 200 mm/year and a shift of precipitation from north to south between 1960 and 1990 (UNDP, 2018). The National Action Program to Combat Desertification (2003) indicates that between 1967 and 2003, the precipitation moved 180 km to the south. In the city of Bol, the rainfall fell from 300 mm/year to 200 mm/year between 1967 and 2003, and that of N’Djamena from 600 mm/year to 400 mm/year in the same period (UNDP, 2018). There is, however, a slight recovery in rainfall inflows from the 1990s, but with a very pronounced variability, and an increase in extreme weather and climate events such as rainfall intensity. Over the last two decades, Chad has witnessed fluctuations in the level of precipitation, characterized by increasingly sharp alternations between droughts and floods (NSCCC – République du Tchad, 2017).
4. Both the National Adaptation Programme of Action (2010) and the Second National Communications (2017) indicate an increase of 0.5°C to 1.7°C in the minimum temperatures and 0 to 1.34°C maximum, but do not specify the reference period (Republic of Chad, 2010; Republic of Chad, 2012). The National Strategy to Combat Climate Change (2017) shows a temperature increase of 0.5 to 0.8°C since the late 1970s in sub-Saharan Africa as well as an increase in N’Djamena since the mid-1990s (MEE, 2017). The rise in minimum and maximum temperatures in N’Djamena over the last two decades is considered the highest, with 1.5°C respectively.
5. The models used for the First National Communications of Chad (MEE, 2001) give variable results in terms of future climate trends. As such, for a scenario of average climate sensitivity using three General Circulation Models (CSIRO-TR, CSIRO2-EQ and ECHAM4), by 2023 the country will record a moderate increase in temperature in the range of 0.6°C to 0.8°C in the South, from 0.9°C to 1.2°C in the Center, and from 1.0°C to 1.3°C in the Northern part of the country. In terms of high climate sensitivity, projections were at 1.1°C for the South and 1.5°C for the North. Using the HADCM2 General Circulation Model, the same report projected an average climate sensitivity at 1.1°C for the South and 1.3°C for the North. The high climate sensitivity with this model was projected at 1.5°C in the South and 1.7°C in the North. According to the report, the climate scenarios indicate that rainfall will be unevenly distributed over time during the rainy season in the months of July, August, and September and that this period will be less rainy than the months of April, May, June and the end of October and November (MEE, 2001). All models predict an increase in precipitation in the Northeast and North (MEE, 2001).

6. Chad’s Second National Communication on Climate Change (SNLCCC) (MEE, 2012) presented results on precipitation and temperature projections for the 2030, 2050, and 2100 horizons based on 29 global models derived from the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) and using the MAGICC and SCENGEN softwares. The Communication predicted a temperature increase in all areas compared to the 1961-1990 period. In the Saharan zone, the increase was shown at 1.2 °C in 2030; 2.2 °C in 2050; 4.1 °C in 2100. The Sudanian zone results were almost identical to the Saharan zone. For the Sahelian zone, the increase was projected at 1.3 °C in 2030; 2.4 °C in 2050 and 4.5 °C in 2100. The report also predicted a significant temperature increase in June, July and August and a minor increase in March, April, and May (the hottest time currently) (MEE, 2012). The SNLCCC indicates that the average temperature in Chad would increase by an average of 1°C in 2030 compared to the period 1981-2010 under the optimistic scenario (RCP 4.5), particularly in the Northern part of the Sahel and the entire Saharan zone. Under the pessimistic scenario, RCP 8.5, this increase would be around 1.5°C by 2030 in the extreme North of the country (Republic of Chad, 2017).
7. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment Report (IPCC AR5) mean annual precipitation projections indicate that under the RCP 8.5 scenario, there will be an increase in precipitation over Chad throughout the 21^st Century. These model projections indicate that in southern Chad there will be an increase in the wet season rainfall from July to September. They also project an increase in heavy precipitation events in Southern Chad with a decrease in the Northern part of the country (Climate Change Knowledge Portal, 2018). According to the projection of all models, the number of hot days and nights will increase yearly and the projected fastest increase will be from July to September. The South of Chad will see the quickest increase in these events (Climate Change Knowledge Portal, 2018). Recent climate projections (Climate Change Knowledge Portal, 2018) using 14 Global Circulation Models from the IPCC AR5 indicate that by the 2060s, mean annual temperature is projected to increase from 1.0 to 3.4°C and by the 2090s to between 1.6 to 5.4°C.
8. According to a study by FAO (2002), the main threat to food security could come from both gradual changes in climate and from the expected increase in the frequency and magnitude of extreme weather events. Based on the work carried out during the “Community-based management of climate risks in Chad” project design phase on selected communities from the different geographical areas, the impacts of climatic hazards (drought and flood) result in difficult or late start to the wet and dry seasons, dry episodes after sowing or at the flowering stage, early end of rains, flooding of fields in lowland areas before tillering, flooding in the mature phase – harvests, and out of season rains.
9. In addition to the threat to food and water security, rural communities face resource conflicts and are often forced to migrate (IUCN, 2009). Rural women in developing countries are considered more vulnerable than men to climate change (MEE, 2009). Women in Chad represent about 51% (INSEED, 2009) of the population, and often live in precarious conditions attributable to land degradation and declining water resources, especially in rural areas where female-headed households are generally poorer (SNRP2, 2008).

Alignment with National Policies

10. This initiative is fully in line with the priorities of the Government of Chad pursued in its development programs and plans, particularly in terms of disaster and risk management programs. This project supports the 2030 vision, specifically the objectives of “Pillar 4: Improving the quality of life of the Chadian population". It is also in line with sub-pillar 4.1 of the National Development Plan (NDP) 2017-2021 "A healthy environment with preserved natural ”resources", in particular result 4.1.3 "Good management of natural resources is ensured", which aims to: (i) implement the policy of combating climate change and preserving biodiversity; (ii) introduce resilient agricultural practices with respect to climate; and (iii) roll out a mechanism for prevention and management of risks and natural disasters.
11. This project will ensure that the gender issues are addressed equitably across all its components by being aligned with the National Policy on Gender for 2011-2020, which aims at the following: "By 2020, Chad is a country free from all forms of gender inequalities and inequities, from all forms of violence, where men and women have equal opportunities to access and control resources and participate equitably in decision-making processes in the interests of achieving sustainable development." The proposed project is also based on the following National Adaptation Programme of Action priorities:  Priority #3 “Improvement, Dissemination and Sustainability of agricultural Calendar for Small Farmers Vulnerable to Climate Change”; and Priority #10 “Climate Risk Management”.
12. The objective of this project is to strengthen the capacity of vulnerable populations to respond to climate change and to enable them to better cope with climate shocks by responding to early warning signals and introducing financial risk transfer mechanisms, such as index-based agricultural micro-insurance. This combined approach will provide a long-term response to the repeated effects of extreme weather and climate events. This initiative will strengthen the climate information system by supporting the development of early warning systems, the monitoring of climate variables and observation facilities, and building the capacity of the stakeholders involved. It will also contribute to strengthen the capacity of relevant ministries and directorates dealing with disaster risk management in Chad, as well as the local communities in terms of how they react and respond to climatic risks through the implemention of a participatory policy at different levels of governance (from the national to the local levels).

Specific barriers addressed by the project

1. Poor access to climate projections and models for the adoption of adaptation measures: Climate projections and models are not available as a result of missing data from the recording station or because of non-functional equipment caused by poor maintenance. This situation makes an optimal assessment of the vulnerabilities and impacts of climate change difficult at the community level. These problems are compounded by the weak capacity of the hydro-meteorological technical staff in climate analysis and projection.    
2. Poor translation of drought and flood forecasts into early warning for rapid public response and action at community level. Chad currently does not have the technical capacity and reliable data to produce hydro-meteorological forecasts that are useful and suited to the specific needs of populations, end-users and the affected socio-economic sectors. In addition, there is no capacity to provide forecasts for each region and community, which is essential for local planning development.
3. Limited community understanding of climate change issues and financial risk transfer mechanisms that facilitate climate change adaptation. The technical, financial and educational background of communities makes it difficult for them to grasp the issues related climate change and understand the notion of risk. In this context, defining risk and translating this concept into local languages is challenging. This lack of understanding also affects the insurance sector, which is still in its infancy in sub-Saharan Africa and is not culturally accepted by communities, requiring specific training and outreach.
4. Lack of experience in financial mechanisms for managing climate risks. Chad does not have an agriculture insurance scheme, nor climate risk sharing and index-based risk transfer and insurance mechanisms. This lack of experience in risk financing mechanisms poses a major barrier to the development of products and initiatives and affects both state institutions and the private sector (microfinance institutions).
5. Weak synergy between institutions and agencies in early warning systems. The coordination between the Food Security and Early Warning Information System (SISAAP), climate data-related projects and government institutions is limited to influence the production and dissemination of alerts. This situation leads to a duplication of efforts during the production of alerts and a lack of sharing of information and experiences. The systems currently in use are not very efficient and do not allow the collection of reliable information in suitable periods of time.

Benefits at the national level

1. The National Adaptation Plan (NAP) project will strengthen part of the observation network, improve the access to information and will build capacity for national, regional and local stakeholders to collect, analyze and use climate information. The “Community-based management of climate risks in Chad” initiative will ensure full coordination, synergies and complementarity with the NAP.
2.  In this context, the project will be implemented in the identified departments and will put an emphasis on the assessment of hydro-meteorological equipment and facilities. It will also strengthen the data infrastructure necessary for the development of the early warning system and the development of agricultural insurance products in these zones. This in turn will call for efforts to strengthen regional stakeholders’ capacities in the management of equipment and infrastructure. The project will also support capacity-building for the National Meteorological Service (DNM) and Directorate General of Water Resources (DGRE) in the use of the collected data for monitoring and early warning purposes and in translating climate-related information into policy advice for the communities. These initiatives will improve the quality of the forecasts and the understanding of the specific needs of the populations in the project areas and will facilitate the integration of the project results into decision-making processes. Stakeholders will thus experience improvements in their capacity to interpret climate information and convey this information to communities. Improved stakeholder capacity is essential for the delivery of reliable climate prediction, warning and projection outputs that are essential at the national level to inform, guide and oversee the planning process in the country. In addition, this initiative will contribute to the development of the agricultural insurance market, particularly index-based insurance. By strengthening the response and planning mechanism at the regional level, the project will enable Chad to become more effective and efficient in allocating existing resources to climate risk management.

Benefits at the local level

3. The project will be an opportunity to promote a new form of climate risk management through index-based micro-insurance and access to information for decision-making. Local communities in the project areas will be a major beneficiary of those services, which will give them improved access to credit and will bring climate risks insurance options managed on the international insurance market to local levels. These efforts will serve to improve the living conditions of vulnerable groups and enhance their involvement in the national economic and social development process. The project will also be a tool for promoting social cohesion at the local community level through awareness-raising, training and information on adaptation and will limit the many conflicts, particularly between farmers and pastoralists, as well as local communities and returnees and refugees, thanks to the adoption of the best adaptation techniques and technologies. Thus, communities will have regular access to climate information, which is crucial for decision-making in a climate crisis (flood and drought). They will also experience a noticeable increase in their capacity to respond expeditiously to climate shocks.
4. At the same time, this project will make it possible to mainstream the project community concerns by feeding into the NAP process in terms of national policies, plans and strategic documents. Through the multi-scale scheme (from the national and regional to the local level) that will be put in place, the specific needs of the populations will be easier to capture and the public authorities will be better able to meet the expectations of the local communities. In addition, the development of agricultural micro-insurance will enable vulnerable populations in communities to benefit quickly from credit and coverage in case of loss of the crop due to a climate shock.

The benefits involved in taking gender and youth issues into account

5. In Chad, the involvement of women in the climate system is very low. The project will provide women in the project areas with regular access to information and credit for production. Since women play a vital role in community-based production systems, this initiative will involve women in the implementation of all the project deliverables, ranging from the access to information and its use, credit and micro-insurance. Thus, special emphasis will be placed on building women's capacities throughout the project. As such, the design of training modules on climate risk management will enable women to benefit from current knowledge on climate change adaptation and risk management.
6. In addition, an emphasis will be put on youth participation under component 2, to give them opportunities to access insurance and credits. Similarly to women, youth often lack access to land and will benefit from the access to credit for the start of a business or to buy rights to land for agriculture and have them insured against climate shocks. The project could consider supporting specifically youth that recently came back to the villages following the COVID-19 outbreak.

Contributions to the strategic outcomes of the LDCF

7. The project will contribute to the NAP process to create a strong foundation for decision-making related to climate change adaptation in Chad and upon which many other adaptation projects will be able to rely to mainstream adaptation in the country. The catalytic nature of those activities as well as the integration potential of this project make it particularly suited with the objective of the LDCF. The project also emphasizes capacity building and awareness raising as key activities that will enable favorable conditions for an effective response to climate-related disaster risks at both national, regional and local levels. Private sector engagement is a key pillar of the new LDCF programming strategy. With the introduction of new financial products to reduce the exposure of vulnerable populations to climate-related risks, this project aims to bring innovation to the insurance industry, which could lead to key partnerships with the private sector and give a boost to the insurance sector in Chad. Table 1, below, highlights the contribution of this project against the outcomes of the LDCF fund for 2018:

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