Lebanon's Second National Communication - 2011

Agriculture in Lebanon is one of the most vulnerable sectors to climate change due to the limited availability of water and land resources and the pressure exerted by population growth and urbanization. The results of the assessment conducted show that higher temperature, reduced precipitation and high evapotranspiration will decrease soil moisture and increase aridity, which will affect the overall agricultural yield of crops. A decrease in productivity is expected for most of the crops and fruit trees especially for wheat, tomatoes, cherries, apples and olive. Chilling needs for mountainous fruit trees such as cherries and apples will not be met, leading to a risk of failure of blossom pollination and fecundation by up to 50%. 

Changes in climate will also lead to increased infestation of fungi and bacterial diseases for most of the crops. Irrigated crops will face water shortages due to increased water demand and decreased water availability for irrigation. Rainfed crops will show either no change or a decrease in their surface area or productivity (e.g., olive, wheat and cherry). Changes in temperature and rainfall will also affect the grazing period and the quality of the pastures, changing the species composition in favor of woody less palatable plants. However, increase in temperature will lead to an expansion of the coastal plantations such as banana and tomatoes to higher altitudes and herders would benefit from a longer pasture season in the mountains due to the reduced thickness and residence time of snow cover.

In order to reduce the consequences of climate change and increase the resilience of the agriculture sector, it is necessary to implement the following adaptation measures: 1) select and introduce more drought and heat-resistant species and hybrids; 2) change planting dates and cropping patterns; 3) adopt sustainable agricultural practices and integrated pest management techniques; 4) elaborate a national rangeland program; 5) enhance genetic selection of local breeds; 6) and promote mixed exploitations. Proposed adaptation measures include policy and legislation options, research topics for improved vulnerability assessment and monitoring, and adapted infrastructure.

The main adaptation strategy for coastal zones is the adoption of integrated coastal zone management to organize and control the urbanization of the coast. More specific measures against sea level rise consist of pulling back human activities from the coast through the creation of buffer zones, moving sources of urban, industrial and agriculture pollution away from the coast, introducing effective early warning systems for coastal hazards, and creating protective structures to limit potential damage.

Forestry

Forests in Lebanon will be adversely affected by climate change, especially that forest stands suffer from fragmentation, pest outbreaks, forest fires and unsuitable practices that already challenge their capacity to survive and develop. The expected changes in temperature and rainfall are expected to be accompanied by a significant change in bioclimatic levels in Lebanon. The Oromediterranean level is projected to disappear from Lebanon by 2080, while the Arid bioclimatic level is expected to increase from 5 to 15 % in area. The most vulnerable forest stands are the upper zone coniferous forests (Cedrus libani; Abies cilicica) and high mountain formations (Juniperus excelsa) and the most vulnerable areas are North Lebanon (Akkar) and Hermel, where a shift in bioclimatic level from sub-humid to semi-arid is expected. Moreover, Tannourine and Arz el Chouf nature reserves will severely be impacted by increased temperatures as they are mainly composed of cedar forests. Horsh Ehden will be less impacted due to diversity of its tree communities. Prolonged drought periods will increase the frequency and periodicity of fire events, especially for Pinus halepensis and Juniperus stands. The regeneration rate, overall area and population density of Juniperus excelsa, Cedrus libani, Abies cilicica as well as Quercus cerris, Fraxinus ornus and Ostrya carpinofolia are also expected to decrease.

Public Health

The direct and indirect effects of climate change include the outbreak of infectious diseases from changing temperatures, increased morbidity and mortality from heat and other extreme weather events, malnutrition from droughts and floods that affect agriculture and other water-borne and rodent-borne diseases related to scarcity of clean water. In addition, changing patterns in rainfall and temperature can cause the proliferation of vector-borne diseases such as Malaria and Dengue fever. The average mortality caused by increases in temperatures is expected to range between 2,483 and 5,254 additional deaths/year between 2010 and2030. Vulnerable population groups, especially the elderly and people living in socio-economically deprived areas, in semi-arid areas and in areas with lower access to health services are more at risk as a result of their high sensitivity and low adaptive capacity.

Tourism

Climate change affects the tourism sector by inflicting damage on a wide range of environmental resources that are critical attractions for tourism. Warmer temperatures and reduced precipitation are expected to lead to a decrease in the intensity, residence time (from 110 days to 45 days with a warming of 2oC) and thickness of the snow cover in the mountains of Lebanon thus shortening the skiing season, which is the key attraction for tourism during winter. Climate change can also provoke the loss of natural attractions, reduce ecotourism activities and impinge on the livelihoods of the communities. In addition, sea level rise may inflict damage on the touristic attractions located on the shore and sandy public beaches and can cause coastal erosion and structural damage to national archaeological heritage.