Saint Lucia's Second National Communication - December 2011

Environmental impacts on agriculture ecosystems are likely to occur under climate change scenarios, particularly with respect to reduced precipitation, extreme events and to a lesser extent sea level rise. This is possible as areas of current microclimatic conditions are lost, and large-scale ecosystem shifts occur either in an acute manner such as in the case of extreme weather events, or though more chronic progression as in the case of annually reducing precipitation. The resultant changes in/replacement or loss of habitats due to either damage or destruction caused by climatic factors are likely to lead to loss in the diversity of habitats and species. While it may be difficult to predict the exact shifts in these areas, some extent of displacement or even loss of these areas to agricultural production is envisaged under the different climate scenarios, causing a dislocation of production and decline in availability of agricultural produce, as well as other attendant issues, such as food scarcity and increased cost of food products.

The various threats posed by climate change, particularly in respect of sea level rise and reduced precipitation are expected to further affect the quality of existing lands that are suitable for agriculture. The impacts of the foregoing include decreased crop yields and overall production levels as a result of decreasing acreages under production arising from land renunciation (abandonment). Given that the island‘s economy is still dependent on agricultural for export earnings, to support employment and to ensure food availability, climate change poses a substantial threat to the economy and to the nation‘s food security. The situation is grave when climate change impacts are combined with existing socio-economic and environmental pressures on our agricultural sector.

Coastal Sector

As the area of most economic activity on Saint Lucia, the coastal sector has been assessed for its vulnerability in the context of agricultural production, water supply, fisheries, tourism and coastal resources. It is expected that there will be impacts of sea level rise, extreme changes in precipitation patterns, storms and increased frequency of El Nino events on the sector. Climate change is likely to have both direct and indirect and largely negative effects on tourism while adding to stresses such as pollution and further compromise the long-term viability of coastal (and near-shore) ecosystems. Significant damage to fish landing sites, fish markets, fishermen‘s locker rooms, and other onshore facilities, could result from any increase in the frequency of intensity of extreme events such as floods, tropical storms and storm surges and while shipping is said to be one of the least affected sectors by climatic change, there is nonetheless need to factor in new/emerging issues such as coastal flooding and restricted access to ports, shifting zones of storminess and potentially stronger hurricanes. It is also suggested that coastal vulnerabilities will increase in light of the realisation of the National Vision Plan.

Infrastructure is particularly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change, particularly to storm and high rainfall events. This is further exacerbated by Saint Lucia‘s topography and the location of some of the island‘s most critical infrastructure along the coast line. Impacts would include (but not be limited to) greater inundation/erosion/ threat/loss of low-lying/coastal development and communities; loss of recreational value and carrying capacity of beaches; poor operational performance of inundated municipal and household septic systems, contaminating drainage and water supplies; reduced capacity/ performance of drainage infrastructure and bridges, increasing risk of flooding in low-lying coastal areas; interruptions in local, regional and international communication resulting from damage to and/or destruction of critical infrastructure; loss of access (temporary/permanent) to, damage or destruction of, critical infrastructure such as coastal roads and bridges, disruptive to several types of economic, social and cultural activities.

Human Settlements and Population Distribution

Since the study area for the assessment is the entire island system, for the purposes of comparison and other forms of analysis, the Human Settlements Sector Team adopted the quadrant systems approach of the Saint Lucia National Vision Plan. In support of the general approach outlined above, the team: focused on the use of local expertise; engaged in comprehensive research to ensure the production of information that is current, relevant and accurate; consulted within and across sectors; and, sought opportunities for integration in recognition of the fact that climate change is cross-cutting, requiring interdependence amongst sectors and the need for one voice to advance the issues.

Given the broad nature of the terms of reference for the assessment, the Human Settlement Sector Team recognized the need to first define the parameters of the Human Settlements Sector, identify areas of overlap with other sectors and consult with the relevant team leaders to determine and discuss the division of labour and focus for each sector team. The approach recognized that Climate Change is inherently a multi-sectoral issue and as such, the Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessment required unreserved collaboration between Sector Teams. The analysis considered existing frameworks / initiatives to address current vulnerability; assessment of future vulnerability; and, proposed adaptations. The team also considered the impact on the main livelihood sectors, namely, agriculture, tourism and the coastal sector.

The impacts on the human settlements sector mirror those seen for the agriculture, coastal, critical infrastructure and tourism sectors as a result of the linkages between and overlap among them.

Forest and Marine Biodiversity

Biological diversity (biodiversity) has been considered in terms of its two main components in Saint Lucia‘s naturally occurring ecosystems – forest and marine.

Saint Lucia has a relatively large and well managed forest cover. Of a total area of 61,500 ha, the island has a forest cover of 48,133.53 ha, of which 9,186 ha is the protected forest reserve and 14,170 ha is private forests. In addition to serving as a significant sink for greenhouse gases, the forest reserve is the primary source for potable water and a source of livelihood for guides and operators who conduct guided tours along the forest trails. However, the forest is under pressure from demands for housing, tourism and agricultural lands which, if not controlled, will reduce the country‘s resilience to the impacts of climate change, particularly in the water sector.

Forest Biodiversity can be easily impact on negatively by unusual temperature variations, droughts, floods, wind damage and landslides associated with extreme weather events. Historical effects of climate variations substantiate this potential climate change impacts. The impacts are expected to be many and varied and in addition to impacts on the flora, will also impact on the fauna which rely on the health and extent of the forest for their survival. These impacts may include drought impact on forest ecosystems and habitats; loss of riparian habitats and impacts on dependent habitat species; significantly reduced stream flow and this specialized habitat would be lost as more drought-resistant species would invade former riparian areas and alteration in the range of species. Additionally, increased intensity of rainfall events leads to increase in land slippage, high erosion, increased sedimentation loads in watersheds, while reduced annual rainfall may lead to ecosystem shifts and increased vulnerability of endangered species as well as reduced water flow in watersheds. Numerous openings in the landscape may cause the forest to be less resistant to strong winds and therefore less resilient to natural disasters. In instances like this, flooding occurs in the major valleys and along the coastal areas when landslides carry tons of soil and debris, thereby affecting river channels and consequently the normal flow of these watercourses. At the same time, with the openings in landscape, wildlife can become exposed to the strong winds, storm surges and geographic displacement of individuals

Saint Lucia also has a rich marine ecosystem, which is beginning to show signs of stress. A total of approximately 250 reef fish species and 50 coral species have been identified for the island. Marine ecosystems include coral reefs, mangals and sea grass beds. Saint Lucia's marine biological resources are part of its capital for development. In addition, the health of the country's fisheries, as well as its tourism sector, is tied to the health of its marine environment whose vulnerability is likely to be exacerbated by the anticipated effects of climate change and, as a consequence, to have a significant impact on the natural, social and economic environment of the country.

Whereas increased storm events are predicted to cause physical damage to coral systems and impact negatively on nursery habitats, there will also be direct biological impacts on marine biodiversity. These include destruction of unique coastal and marine habitats (increase in coral bleaching events, could cause the destruction of major reef tracts and mangroves); increased intensity of rainfall events leads to increase in sedimentation on near-shore coral reefs; reduced reproductive frequency of endangered turtles; photosynthetic groups utilize higher CO2 availability to increase their biomass; reduced profitability of fisheries; inundation of wetlands, beach erosion, intensified flooding, and increased salinity of rivers, bays and near-shore waters; alteration in larval distribution of pelagic fish species. Indirect impacts such as reduction in quantum and variety of catch, and related economic impacts are also predicted; particularly as they relate to habitats impacted by the realisation of the national vision plan.

Strong seasonality can be exacerbated by climate change as the high tourist season coincides with low water regimes in dry season, aggravating water management and environmental issues. The tourism sector‘s vulnerability to climate change now increases as impacts of climate change (damage to coastal beaches, damage infrastructure, and increased temperatures) manifest. Increasing frequency and severity of extreme weather events, sea level rise and accelerated beach erosion, degradation of coral reefs, (including bleaching) and the loss of cultural heritage through inundation and flooding are likely to reduce the attractiveness of small island states5. Not only would the change in climate be a deterrent for visitors, but also the resultant decline in quality of the environmental features that often defines the tourism product and lures them to the island.

Additionally, actions to address climate change such as environmental taxes on fuels used in air transportation could adversely affect the demand for travel to Saint Lucia. Already, such policies and their applicability for maritime transportation have been at the centre of the international climate change fora and will undoubtedly undermine the resiliency of our tourism sector.

Financial Services Sector

The role of the financial services sector in supporting all sectors during the development stage as well as the post–disaster recovery and reconstruction phases underscores both its importance and its vulnerability. These vulnerabilities relate to possible over-exposure to risks based on the IPCC predictions. The absence of enforced codes and regulations requiring construction design and practices to adequately factor in these considerations serve to exacerbate the possible impacts, which include risk reduction by adherence to nationally approved setbacks when approving loans and insuring properties and ensuring that these are in conformity with them.

Critical infrastructure and hotel development located near shores will come under direct threat as a result of sea level rise. The sector may increase premiums which will be passed on to consumers. This will be a direct cost impact to the various sectors. As clients become more aware of the impacts of climate change and they attempt to reduce their vulnerability the Financial Services Sector will see increased requests for insurance coverage and bank loans to address adaptation concerns; this will require a broadening of portfolio to cater to new needs of clientele. As a result of government‘s inclination to foster climate resilience at a national level Financial Services Sector will be required to shift their portfolios to cater to those need that this will create. Damage to critical infrastructure, housing and beachfront property can result in increased insurance claims. There is likely to be an adverse impact on farmers. Because of the direct threat which livestock and crops will come under as a result of increased intensity and frequency of hurricanes and droughts, a government response will be required to help the sector in adapting. The Financial Services Sector will therefore most likely be required to scale up financing and over coverage for agriculture infrastructure such as greenhouses to protect crops etc. Insurances will likely see increased payouts to clients; an increase in the number of medical claims filed and a possible increase in the number of clients as people seek redress with increasing health costs